Tuesday, 2 June 2009

Momentum - 'the big mo' in the polls



Its a phrase every party dreams of, do they have momentum, or 'the big mo'? The polls are always a bit variable, not very accurate. But during an election period suddenly instead of just the usual parties (Tory/Lab/LD) getting all the coverage, the Greens get some air time. And this can result in new interest in us and our policies.

Now during this election the news is all about expenses scandals, which have smeared all the big parties, and some of the smaller ones were already in the mire. That leaves the Greens as a option to more and more people.

So I've been watching our poll readings go up and up, and it may be that we have it, "The Big Mo". Momentum. Lots of it.

In the new poll, conducted by ComRes, the Greens have overtaken the Lib Dems for the first time since 1989. The poll suggests the Greens may be about to match their historic 1989 Euro-election vote of 15%.

If the poll proves accurate, the Greens will probably win new MEPs in many regions, and may even get a second seat in the South East, with Brighton councillor Keith Taylor joining party leader Caroline Lucas.


The new poll shows support for the different parties as follows:
Con 24%
Labour 22%
UKIP 17%
Green 15%
Lib Dem 14%
BNP 2%


In this one I've plotted all the parties, but its a bit unclear.

B Tory dark blue
C Lab orange
D LD yellow
E Green green
F UKIP red
G BNP light blue

Date of Poll Cons Lab Ld Green Ukip Bnp
18/05/09 39 . 23 . 19 . 4 . 6 . 5
23/05/09 30 . 24 . 18 . 9 . 10 . 1
29/05/09 30 . 16 . 12 . 10 . 19 . 5
30/05/09 40 . 18 . 18 . 6 . 7 . 4
30/05/09 29 . 17 . 20 . 11 . 10 . 5
01/06/09 40 . 18 . 18 . 6 . 7 . 4
02/06/09 24 . 22 . 14 . 15 . 17 . 2

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